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If these both theories made the same predictions, you'd have to depend on your prior knowledge - your prior, for short - to judge which one was more likely.And even if they didn't make the same predictions, you'd need some prior knowledge that told you which of the predictions were better, or that the predictions matter in the first place (as opposed to, say, theoretical elegance).This article is an attempt to summarize basic material, and thus probably won't have anything new for the hard core posting crowd.
Some people thought that unexplained and otherwise suspicious things in the official account had to mean that it was a government conspiracy.
They might be running for the sake of exercise, or they might be running because they're in a hurry somewhere, or they might even be running because it's cold and they want to stay warm.
To figure out which one is the case, you'll try to consider which of the explanations is true most often, and fits the circumstances best.
Others considered their prior for "the government is ready to conduct massively risky operations that kill thousands of its own citizens as a publicity stunt", judged that to be overwhelmingly unlikely, and thought it far more probable that something else caused the suspicious things. But there are many well-known instances in which people forget to apply this information.
Take supernatural phenomena: yes, if there were spirits or gods influencing our world, some of the things people experience would certainly be the kinds of things that supernatural beings cause.